Two weeks ago, I bumped into Charlie Swinbourne, the Editor of this site, and we were talking about the future of technology when I told him my theory of ‘Peak Deaf Access.’ He asked me to share it with a wider audience, so here it is!
Most of us know about ‘Peak Oil Theory,’ the idea that at some point the world’s supply of oil reaches its peak and from then on many of the things we take for granted – like a plentiful and relatively cheap supply of fuel and energy – enters terminal decline, becoming gradually more scarce, and expensive.
Well I have a ‘Peak Deaf Access’ theory, which works roughly along the same lines.
I think we have reached a peak in access terms, or are about to reach it. I believe that there will be a long decline for access for profoundly deaf people from now on as the use of voice recognition systems takes off.
Profoundly deaf people have vastly benefited from the digital revolution. Once, we were left out when society depended on the phone. Then fax machines and textphones gave us a small step forward. But that was nothing compared to what followed: the internet, emails, text messaging, webcams and smartphones. We now take many of these advances for granted.
To input information to many of these systems, we still use keyboards. However, as new devices have come in that don’t use a traditional keyboard, they’re starting to offer voice recognition as a way of inputting information instead. For an example, just look at Apple’s Siri voice recognition system for the iPhone.
The problem is that all attempts so far to create a system that can recognise signs in the same way as voices have failed. Voices are soundwaves which is linear, relatively easy to convert into meaningful computerised data, whereas signs exist in 3D physical space, and are accompanied by intricate facial expressions. It’s hard to imagine a system being invented for sign language recognition anytime soon.
One day, I think all the keyboards will be gone, the buttons on smartphones will be gone, and everything will be like Star Trek – with people walking into lifts and speaking to say which floor they want to go to. One day people will laugh at the concept where people had to press individual keys H…E…L…L…O, its so much quicker and easier to just say the word ‘Hello’ and speak hundreds of words effortlessly. Appliances at home (such as toasters, washing machines, ovens), cars and even televisions will be operated through voice recognition.
Every other disability group will benefit hugely, no need for physical touch, no need for specially adjusted input devices… And us Deafies? We’ll be left out.
So there it is. My theory of ‘Peak Deaf Access.’ Don’t say you haven’t been warned!
What do you think? Have we reached ‘Peak Deaf Access?’ Leave your comment below.
Mark Nelson is Chief Executive of Remark!, the UK’s largest deaf media company. He has worked in deaf media for 21 years. Check out their website here. Http://remark.uk.com
Lana
March 7, 2012
Yes it did come across to my thinking some time ago when I saw on TV or film of a man talking to his phone. I thought how can the Deaf people speak – like when we press the door answer bell and we cannot get ourselves inside. concerning the newer equipment, I suppose we will have to ask someone to talk for us like in old days when our parents rely on friendly neighbours. Or Deaf people will need a dog that can speak for us?.
Matt Hearn
March 7, 2012
I did think that, but then we have 3D technology – both capture and display. Take LG Optimus 3D mobile phone for example, it’s able to display 3D imagery as well as allowing the owner to take 3D pictures. If this kind of technology is available, then in theory one day it’ll be able to recognise sign language. If someone out there develops it specifically for that function. Its not all doom and gloom!
John Walker
March 7, 2012
i think there are equal developments in motion sensor technology seen in computer games where gestures translate into actions in the game play. The ‘Minority Report’ has a lot to say about this trend, but I think it is a trend that is here to stay. Eventually, this gesture recognition system will translate into a translation medium for sign language users. The problem with BSL is that it isn’t codified enough because there are many ways to express the same concept, whereas in English, there is a vaguely standardised form of English (BBC English, Received Pronunciation, etc).
Lastly, text is an important aspect of communication and highly regarded in English. We still think about buying a book, ok an e-book, but it is still a page with text. In other printing sectors including literature, academic texts, or the odd book; text still reigns supreme.
In short, I am not sure. There are too much development in text and gesture technology that will benefit the Deaf community.
Benjamin Palmer
March 7, 2012
Whilst I fully agree with Mark, I also feel that this could simply be circumvented by recording voice commands onto a tiny portable machine and then press the appropriate button to play the necessary command……
James Merry
March 7, 2012
interesting. Yeh, it’s all happening now, technology-wise, isn’t it?
This has happened before; eg; deaf people being left behind by technological progress, eg; the telephone.
Having said that, I wouldn’t rule out the prospect of computational recognition of three-dimensional sign language just yet. The big problem so far has been the necessity of converting sign-language into a 2D form (eg; photo, video), and then trying to extrapolate 3D data from it. It’s not really possible.
There are, however, all sorts of exciting visual technologies coming along now which purport to be able to provide 3D depth-mapping information, as well as the 2D video data.. Indeed, we’ve already seen some of this technology at a consumer level with products such as Microsoft’s Kinect.
This will be a crucial element in any sign-language recognition system. While we obviously aren’t there yet, I would wager that there are definitely people out there who are making good progress on solving this sort of problem. Once we have a way of recording the 3D data quickly and finely enough, I don’t think it would be too much of a stretch to apply the same sort of voice-recognition technology that we’re currently seeing in Siri, Google, etc, to that 3D sign-language data.
Exciting times!
randomly googled experiment with a Microsoft Kinect 3D sensor to provide depth-mapping
3d depth mapping; tracking hands, face and body
http://www.gesturetek.com/3ddepth/introduction.php
new Samsung camera with depth sensor integrated into it’s CMOS
http://www.theverge.com/2012/2/29/2834088/samsung-camera-sensor-captures-image-depth-information
Obviously, as tools, these are currently all still too blunt to used as a means to track and recognise sign language, but the point is, this is technology that’s still relatively nascent, and people are still trying to work out what they can do with it. I would argue, that given time, and the application of Moore’s Law, we might have sign-language recognition systems sooner than we think!
Anyway, that’s my own two pence. I’d better get back to work now. Yikes!
Tim
March 7, 2012
Interesting post, but I worry more about attitudinal and investment peaks. In a time of austerity, we are already seeing cuts affecting deaf people and children and it is always “justified” with the ‘well, we are in hard times’ attitude. What about jobs too? How many employers will see deaf people ‘as ‘passengers’ and think ‘the political correctness was nice while we could afford it, but now….’ I’d love to be wrong on this, but the signs are not good (pardon the pun.)
Deepa
March 7, 2012
This is what WISDOM project tried to do, develop sign language recognition to trigger words…. shame the EU didn’t want to continue funding this initiative.
Deepa
March 7, 2012
Here’s links on WISDOM project… http://www.bris.ac.uk/deaf/downloads/summary07.pdf
http://www.deafstudiestrust.org/research_previous_wisdom.php
Penny
March 7, 2012
I’m not overly worried as we also have 3D technology eg kinect and these voice recognition software are improving all the time to take on variant in the accents. There is a translator app/device now available where you can put it by a foreign speaking person and it translates into your own language but at this stage, it requires pre programming therefore only effective in planned settings eg business meetings with familiar people. However, it won’t be long before they can make it work spontaneously meaning we can communicate with anyone we come across eg shop, bank, etc and maybe even use it to eavedrop on conversations (just like hearing people do unconsciously!) and finally find out what people really do talk about!!!!! Can’t wait 🙂
Danielle
March 7, 2012
I think voice recognition will never fully replace actual buttons or tpuch screen technology. As a hearing person, I would much rather text using my iphone touch screen than the new ‘siri’ technology. I think many other hearing people would agree. As much as ‘siri’ is a novelty at the moment, especially with his random responses, it isn’t always appropriate to use (on a packed tube for example), and certainly isn’t faster than typing by hand. You often have to repeat what you’ve said several times and there is still mistakes. I think it is fantastic technology for access to disabilities such as physical mobility, blind, etc. But disagree that is will become ‘the norm’. Other than people who are deaf, there are also people with speech impairments, mute, foreign accents to think about. All of whom would struggle with voice recognition. I believe it is just a step forward in inclusuion.
Debbie Challoner
March 7, 2012
Very interesting read…idea of voice recognition is good, but if you can’t hear question say “which floor” in lift. The advent of text was a god send to me as partially deaf person. I only hear certain things and rely heavily on reading lips. It will b knowning when to speak could be a problem. I can see this as being a problem for deaf who can’t speak as well.
Scott
March 7, 2012
Only problem with your theory, as I see it, is that you’re assuming Deaf people will continue to be born in sufiicient numbers for the propagation of BSL beyond the foreseeable future, in the developed world at least, given the ongoing advances in genetic therapy and CI technology etc. “Peak Deaf Population Theory” anybody?
John Walker
March 7, 2012
I was talking to a friend (non-deaf) about this and he complained that he needed to repeat his statement on his phone four times before it was eventually recorded – it was very time consuming. The reliance on speech recognition software will not only leave out Deaf people but also non-deaf people who use English as a lingua franca. This includes Europeans who are only able to speak in English with a heavy accent, and the recognition system can not understand their phonetics. I am sure the same applies to people from Glasgow, Liverpool and Northern Ireland, for example.
There is a desire to tame the English voice, but I fear it is an even bigger monster than we think. Also, for this trend to be successful, the UK must lose its ‘cultural English’ and drop its metaphorical language (ie. ‘bright idea’ but ideas don’t shine brightly, it is a metaphor of a shining lightbulb to represent a new idea). It is too culturally bound of speech recognition technology to get right.
Smarty
March 8, 2012
I think Mark may have a point regarding peak access. But I don’t think it will be down to speech recognition technology. Even if it does spread everywhere, there are devices that can speak for us if we type something down. Also, speech recognition technology could be used to benefit us – we could carry special devices which recognise what people say.
If Deaf access does decline I think it will be due to smaller numbers of deaf people choosing to use BSL due to cochlea implants and mainstreaming. As less and less young deaf people rely on BSL interpreters there is a danger that officials will start questioning whether they are needed at all. Also, recently there has been a shift in attitudes. Providing equality for deaf and disabled people isn’t as high up on the priority list as it used to be in these economically tough times.
Ben Fletcher
March 9, 2012
ah, but…. what’ll be the “peak” when mind reading technology comes and replaces voice recognition…? 🙂 (people without mind?)
at my work, my colleagues drove a cab using just their mind… also a top 5 predictions with IT analysts
command and control by voice and star trek seems old now, doesn’t it?
for every technology that is disabling, like as you suggest, there’s also enabling technology… there is no end in technology
if your theory is true, of a device that’s driven only by voice – why not a phone app that voices for us? a digital PA. 🙂 wirelessly connected to a speaker clipped at collar…
also, is it a full blown sign lang reco, the beginning? why not something more basic but creative, perhaps with sign lang evolved to enable simple command and control? like how teens evolved English with shorthands for quick SMSes. (Benjamin Palmer, nice meeting you… 🙂
why not take out some of the tech dept from the deaf charities and put them amongst the creative startups in the new Tech City in Shoreditch, London, that seems to be the place to be
stageandsign
March 9, 2012
A friend alerted me to a couple of projects relating to this matter.
http://personal.ee.surrey.ac.uk/Personal/R.Bowden/sign/index.html
http://www.dictasign.eu/Main/HomePage?userlang=en
I think some clever clogs will crack it.
mmostynthomas
March 9, 2012
BSL will live on. It just might not stay in a form that we recognise today.
30% of hearing children are starting school aged three with speech delays. These kids are our future leaders. Even speech recognition would have to adapt to their needs – indicating that it might not become as widespread as people think.
Language (signed and spoken) is evolving. So is mankind, and technology. The three have a symbiotic relationship with each other. And in times of hardship, humanity – and it must be said, being deaf or disabled makes us richer human beings – have always found a way to fight back. Anything is possible.
Andy Hearn
March 9, 2012
A quick workaround would to be carry a mobile-sized device, to convert text-to-speech (software is already widely available on various platforms today, and most likely will continue to exist – i.e. Stephen Hawking’s synthesiser, and these apps to read pages aloud for the blind) – that will then fire commands at whatever toaster-videophone-coffee-machine combo of tomorrow!
Oh Dear
March 14, 2012
Most of us know about ‘Peak Oil Theory,’…..”most”….oh dear…..i very much doubt it…..very few will know about it.
‘Peak access theory’….nonsense……oil is an finite resource and can not be replaced…..access is dependent on the ‘supply and demand theory’ and can not have a ‘peak’….access can go up and down depending on the number of deaf people in a given population and the supply of services, whether it will be sign language interpreters or technology. The very idea of ‘peak access theory’ IS clearly nonsense.
Oh dear….
jandriene
February 16, 2013
I just have to chime in here….I know this is an oldish thread, but as a realtime captioner …steno…I know for a fact that the technology of having your phone “listen” to someone and relay the info back to you will never happen on any accurate basis. I have read and studied various tech sciences that try to convert speech to text..it willnever be done in our lifetime, if ever. There are too many nuances and linguistical issues, not to mention speed of delivery and punctuation. Nothing can compare to the accuracy of a live, human stenocaptioner.. it is the only skill that effectively translates within a 97 percent accuracy. Voice to text is extremely limited and always will be.
Michelle
February 20, 2013
I think Mark is right. Recently, at my son’s school, they have just installed a security gate. To gain access, you have to push a button, and wait for someone in the school office to reply. Once you have told them your query, they will decide whether to let you in or not. Very clever technology of course, but not clever as it excludes the Deaf parents who have a child there!
emma
February 15, 2014
My step mother’s mobile phone key pad is unlocked by facial recognition maybe a similar technology can be invented to recognise BSL. People from past generations would never have believed the technology we have now. Never say never.